Three Variations on Money Pump, Common Prior, and Trade

Abstract

We consider finite information structures, and quest for the answer of the question: What is the proper definition of prior? In the single player setting we conclude that a probability distribution is a prior if it is disintegrable, because this definition excludes money pump. In the multiplayer setting our analysis does not boil down to one proper notion of common prior (the multiplayer version of prior). The appropriate notion is a choice of the modeller in this setting. We consider three variants of money pump, each "defines" a notion of common prior. Furthermore, we also consider three variants of trade, each correspond to one of the money pump variants, hence to one of the common prior variants.