The Social Sphere Model: Heuristic Influence Prediction in Evolving Networks

Abstract

How would admissions look like in a university program for influencers? In the realm of social network analysis, influence maximization and link prediction stand out as pivotal challenges. Influence maximization focuses on identifying a set of key nodes to maximize information dissemination, while link prediction aims to foresee potential connections within the network. These strategies, primarily deep learning link prediction methods and greedy algorithms, have been previously used in tandem to identify future influencers. However, given the complexity of these tasks, especially in large-scale networks, we propose an algorithm, The Social Sphere Model, which uniquely utilizes expected value in its future graph prediction and combines specifically path-based link prediction metrics and heuristic influence maximization strategies to effectively identify future vital nodes in weighted networks. Our approach is tested on two distinct contagion models, offering a promising solution with lower computational demands. This advancement not only enhances our understanding of network dynamics but also opens new avenues for efficient network management and influence strategy development.