College Basketball: An In-depth Study of the Foul Up 3 Dilemma

Abstract

Within college basketball, the decision to foul or not with a 3-point lead (the "foul up 3" dilemma) significantly impacts teams. A single fouling decision can directly determine the outcome of a game or even an entire season. Within this research project, I take a novel look at the "foul up 3" dilemma. As opposed to using time as a blocking factor, as previous studies have, my research focuses on generating a coachable strategy that outlines the superior fouling decision for each moment in time.