Estimating breakpoints between climate states in the Cenozoic Era

Abstract

This study presents a statistical time-domain approach for identifying transitions between climate states, referred to as breakpoints, using well-established econometric tools. We analyze a 67.1 million year record of the oxygen isotope ratio delta-O-18 derived from benthic foraminifera. The dataset is presented in Westerhold et al. (2020), where the authors use recurrence analysis to identify six climate states. Fixing the number of breakpoints to five, our procedure results in breakpoint estimates that closely align with those identified by Westerhold et al. (2020). By treating the number of breakpoints as a parameter to be estimated, we provide the statistical justification for more than five breakpoints in the time series. Further, our approach offers the advantage of constructing confidence intervals for the breakpoints, and it allows for testing the number of breakpoints present in the time series.