MARTIANS (MARs2020, TIANwen and So on) would see more potentially hazardous asteroids than Earthlings

Abstract

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are a special subset of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that can come close to the Earth and are large enough to cause significant damage in the event of an impact. Observations and researches of Earth-PHAs have been underway for decades. Here, we extend the concept of PHAs to Mars and study the feasibility of detecting Mars-PHAs in the near future. We focus on PHAs that truly undergo close approaches with a planet (dubbed CAPHAs) and aim to compare the actual quantities of Earth-CAPHAs and Mars-CAPHAs by conducting numerical simulations incorporating the Yarkovsky effect, based on observed data of the main asteroid belt. The estimated number of Earth-CAPHAs and Mars-CAPHAs are 4675 and 16910, respectively. The occurrence frequency of Mars-CAPHAs is about 52 per year, which is 2.6 times that of Earth-CAPHAs, indicating significant potential for future Mars-based observations. Furthermore, a few Mars-CAPHAs are predicted to be observable even from Earth around the time of next Mars opposition in 2025.