Analysis of non-equilibrium fluctuations in a number of COVID-19 cases and deaths based on time-convolutionless projection-operator method

Abstract

The non-equilibrium fluctuations observed in a number of COVID-19 cases and deaths are analyzed from a statistical-dynamical point view. By investigating the data observed around the world which were collected from January 15, 2020 to April 28, 2023 at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/, we first show that the dynamics of the fluctuations is described by a stochastic equation whose stochastic force is a multiplicative type. By employing the time-convolutionless projection-operator method in open systems previously proposed by the present author, we then transform it into a Langevin-type equation with an additive-type stochastic force together with the corresponding Fokker-Planck type equation. Thus, we explore the stochastic properties of a Langevin-type stochastic force not only analytically but also numerically from a unified point of view. Finally, we emphasize that the dynamical behavior in deaths resembles that in cases very much not only for the causal motion but also for the fluctuation.