Convergence rates for ensemble-based solutions to optimal control of uncertain dynamical systems

Abstract

We consider optimal control problems involving nonlinear ordinary differential equations with uncertain inputs. Using the sample average approximation, we obtain optimal control problems with ensembles of deterministic dynamical systems. Leveraging techniques for metric entropy bounds, we derive non-asymptotic Monte Carlo-type convergence rates for the ensemble-based solutions. Our theoretical framework is validated through numerical simulations on a harmonic oscillator problem and a vaccination scheduling problem for epidemic control under model parameter uncertainty.