Modelling wildfire spread and spotfire merger using conformal mapping and AAA-least squares methods

Abstract

A two-dimensional model of wildfire spread and merger is presented. Three features affect the fire propagation: (i) a constant basic rate of spread term accounting for radiative and convective heat transfer, (ii) the unidirectional, constant ambient wind, and (iii) a fire-induced pyrogenic wind. Two numerical methods are proposed to solve for the harmonic pyrogenic potential. The first utilizes the conformal invariance of the Laplace equation, reducing the wildfire system to a single Polubarinova-Galin type equation. The second method uses a AAA-least squares method to find a rational approximation of the potential. Various wildfire scenarios are presented and the effects of the pyrogenic wind and the radiative/convective basic rate of spread terms investigated. Firebreaks such as roads and lakes are also included and solutions are found to match well with existing numerical and experimental results. The methods proposed in this work are suitably fast and accurate to be considered for operational use.