Simple Macroeconomic Forecast Distributions for the G7 Economies

Abstract

We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the empirical distribution of the IMF's past forecast errors while imposing coherence of prediction intervals across horizons. We show that the technique yields calibrated prediction intervals and performs similar to, or better than, more complex time series models in terms of statistical loss functions. We provide a simple website with graphical illustrations of our forecasts, as well as time-stamped data files that document their real-time character.