Semi-empirical Estimates of the Cosmic Planet Formation Rate

Abstract

We devise and exploit a data-driven, semi-empirical framework of galaxy formation and evolution, coupling it to recipes for planet formation from stellar and planetary science, to compute the cosmic planet formation rate, and the properties of the planets' preferred host stellar and galactic environments. We also discuss how the rates and formation sites of planets are affected when considering their habitability, and when including possible threatening sources related to star formation and nuclear activity. Overall, we conservatively estimate a cumulative number of some $10^{20}$ Earth-like planets and around $10^{18}$ habitable Earths in our past lightcone. Finally, we find that a few $10^{17}$ are older than our own Earth, an occurrence which places a loose lower limit a few $10^{-18}$ to the odds for a habitable world to ever hosting a civilization in the observable Universe.