Influence Networks: Bayesian Modeling and Diffusion

Abstract

In this article, we make an innovative adaptation of a Bayesian latent space model based on projections in a novel way to analyze influence networks. By appropriately reparameterizing the model, we establish a formal metric for quantifying each individual's influencing capacity and estimating their latent position embedded in a social space. This modeling approach introduces a novel mechanism for fully characterizing the diffusion of an idea based on the estimated latent characteristics. It assumes that each individual takes the following states: Unknown, undecided, supporting, or rejecting an idea. This approach is demonstrated using a influence network from Twitter (now $\mathbb{X}$) related to the 2022 Tax Reform in Colombia. An exhaustive simulation exercise is also performed to evaluate the proposed diffusion process.