Simple fusion-fission quantifies Israel-Palestine violence and suggests multi-adversary solution

Abstract

Why humans fight has no easy answer. However, understanding better how humans fight could inform future interventions, hidden shifts and casualty risk. Fusion-fission describes the well-known grouping behavior of fish etc. fighting for survival in the face of strong opponents: they form clusters ('fusion') which provide collective benefits and a cluster scatters when it senses danger ('fission'). Here we show how similar clustering (fusion-fission) of human fighters provides a unified quantitative explanation for complex casualty patterns across decades of Israel-Palestine region violence, as well as the October 7 surprise attack -- and uncovers a hidden post-October 7 shift. State-of-the-art data shows this fighter fusion-fission in action. It also predicts future 'super-shock' attacks that will be more lethal than October 7 and will arrive earlier. It offers a multi-adversary solution. Our results -- which include testable formulae and a plug-and-play simulation -- enable concrete risk assessments of future casualties and policy-making grounded by fighter behavior.