Forensically useful mid-term and short-term temperature reconstruction for quasi-indoor death scenes

Abstract

Accurate reconstruction of ambient temperature at death scenes is crucial for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) in forensic science. Typically, this is done by correcting weather station temperatures using measurements from the scene, often through linear regression. While recent attempts to use alternative algorithms like GAM have improved accuracy, they usually require additional variables such as humidity, making them impractical. This study presents two methods for accurate temperature reconstruction using only temperature data. The first, a concurrent regression model, is known in mathematics and is applied here for mid-term reconstructions (several days of measurements). The second, a new method based on Fourier expansion, is designed for short-term reconstructions (only a few hours of measurements). Both models were tested in quasi-indoor conditions, using data from six different environments. The concurrent regression model provided nearly perfect reconstructions for periods longer than six days, while the short-term model achieved similar accuracy after just 4-5 hours of measurements. These findings demonstrate that reliable temperature corrections for PMI estimation can be made with significantly reduced measurement periods, enhancing the practicality of the method in forensic applications.