The Gerontocratization of Science: How hypergrowth reshapes knowledge circulation

Abstract

Scientific literature has been growing exponentially for decades, with publications from the last twenty years now comprising 60% of all academic output. While the impact of information overload on news and social-media consumption is well-documented, its consequences on scientific progress remain understudied. Here, we investigate how this rapid expansion affects the circulation and exploitation of scientific ideas. Unlike other cultural domains, science is experiencing a decline in the proportion of highly influential papers and a slower turnover in its canons. This results in the disproportionate persistence of established works, a phenomenon we term the ``gerontocratization of science''. To test whether hypergrowth drives this trend, we develop a generative citation model that incorporates random discovery, cumulative advantage, and exponential growth of the scientific literature. Our findings reveal that as scientific output expands exponentially, gerontocratization emerges and intensifies, reducing the influence of new research. Recognizing and understanding this mechanism is crucial for developing targeted strategies to sustain intellectual dynamism and ensure a balanced and healthy renewal of scientific knowledge.