Distribution Grids May Be a Barrier To Residential Electrification

Abstract

Replacing fossil-fueled appliances and vehicles with electric alternatives can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution in many settings. However, residential electrification can also raise electricity demand beyond the safe limits of electrical infrastructure. This can increase the risk of blackouts or require grid reinforcement that is often slow and expensive. Here, we estimate the physical and economic impacts on distribution grids of electrifying all housing and personal vehicles in each county of the lower 48 United States. We find that space heating is the main driver of grid impacts, with the coldest regions seeing demand peaks up to five times higher than today's peaks. Accommodating electrification of all housing and personal vehicles is estimated to require 600 GW of distribution grid reinforcement nationally, at a cost of \$350 to \$790 billion, or \$2,800 to \$6,400 per household (95% confidence intervals). However, demand-side management could eliminate three-quarters of grid reinforcement costs.