Modeling H1N1 Influenza Transmission and Control: Epidemic Theory Insights Across Mexico, Italy, and South Africa

Abstract

This study incorporates mathematical analysis, focusing on developing theories and conducting numerical simulations of Influenza virus transmission using real-world data. The terms in the equations introduce parameters which are determined by fitting the model for matching clinical data sets using non-linear least-square method. The purpose is to determine the wave trend, critical illness factors and forecast for Influenza in national levels of Mexico, Italy, and South Africa and to investigate the effectiveness of control policy and making some suggestions of alternative control policies. Data were extracted from the following sources: published literature, surveillance, unpublished reports, and websites of Centres For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) \cite{CDC}, Natality report of U.S. clinics and World Health Organization (WHO) Influenza Disease Dashboard \cite{WHO}. We included total 120 weeks data (which are calculated as per thousand) from October 01, 2020 to March 31, 2023 \cite{CDC}, throughout this study. Numerical and sensitivity analysis are carried out to determine some prevent strategies. The objectives of local and global sensitivity analysis is to determine the dominating parameters and effective correlation with $\mathcal{R}_0$. We presented data fitting, Latin hypercube sampling, sensitivity indices, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient, p-value, estimation of the nature of $\mathcal{R}_0$ from available data to show validation of the model with these counties. The aim is to determine optimal control strategies with drug administration schemes, treatments which represent the efficacy of drug inhabiting viral production and preventing new infections, minimizes the systematic cost based on the percentage effect of the drug. Finally, we present series of numerical examples and the effect of different parameters on the compartments to verify theoretical results.