Statistical and Mathematical Evidence of Rigged Parliamentary Elections in Georgia, 2024

Abstract

The official data provided by "Central Election Commission" was analyzed, revealing irregularities that raised reasonable suspicion of election manipulation by the winning ``Georgian Dream Party." However, these suspicions alone were insufficient to provide concrete evidence. A computational approach was developed based on the official data to address this. Through this analysis, one method estimated the number of manipulated votes to range between 140,000 and 200,000, while another approach estimated a broader range of 90,000 to 245,000 votes. Notably, both methods identified the most probable number of manipulated votes as 175,000, providing a strong mathematical basis to substantiate the claim of election falsification.