GraphDOP: Towards skilful data-driven medium-range weather forecasts learnt and initialised directly from observations

Abstract

We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no physics-based (re)analysis inputs or feedbacks. GraphDOP learns the correlations between observed quantities - such as brightness temperatures from polar orbiters and geostationary satellites - and geophysical quantities of interest (that are measured by conventional observations), to form a coherent latent representation of Earth System state dynamics and physical processes, and is capable of producing skilful predictions of relevant weather parameters up to five days into the future.