The Structure of Scenarios

Abstract

Scenarios elicit possibilities that may be ignored otherwise, as well as causal relations between them. Even when too little information is available to assess reliable probabilities, the structure of linkages between evoked alternatives and perceived consequences can be analyzed by highlighting shared consequences of different alternatives or, conversely, diverging consequences of apparently similar alternatives. While according to current practice this structure is analyzed by exploring four possibilities obtained by crossing two macro-features, I illustrate the wider possibilities enabled by hypergraph analysis. An application is discussed.