The silent threat of methane to ecosystems: Insights from mechanistic modelling

Abstract

Over the past century, atmospheric methane levels have nearly doubled, posing a significant threat to ecosystems. Despite this, studies on its direct impact on species interactions are lacking. Although bioaccumulation theory explains the effects of contaminants in trophic levels, it is inadequate for gaseous pollutants such as methane. This study aims to bridge the gap by developing a methane-population-detritus model to investigate ecological impacts in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Our findings show that low methane concentrations can enhance species growth, while moderate accumulation may induce sub-lethal effects over time. Elevated methane levels, however, lead to ecosystem collapse. Furthermore, prolonged exposure to the gas increases the sensitivity of species towards rising temperatures. Multiscale analysis reveals that rapid methane accumulation leads to long transients near the extinction states. We argue that high emission rates can push the system towards a critical threshold, where the ecosystem shifts to an alternative stable state characterized by elevated methane concentrations. This work highlights the urgent need for a better understanding of the fatal role of methane in ecosystems for developing strategies to mitigate its effects amid climate change.