A coding theoretic study of homogeneous Markovian predictive games

Abstract

This paper explores a predictive game in which a Forecaster announces odds based on a time-homogeneous Markov kernel, establishing a game-theoretic law of large numbers for the relative frequencies of occurrences of all finite strings. A key feature of our proof is a betting strategy built on a universal coding scheme, inspired by the martingale convergence theorem and algorithmic randomness theory, without relying on a diversified betting approach that involves countably many operating accounts. We apply these insights to thermodynamics, offering a game-theoretic perspective on Le\'o Szil\'ard's thought experiment.