Arctic teleconnection on climate and ozone pollution in the polar jet stream path of eastern US

Abstract

Arctic sea-ice loss is a defining feature of climate change and offers insight into its impact on mid-latitude air quality. Here, we investigate how variability in Arctic sea-ice extent (ASI) affects ground-level ozone ($O_3$) across eastern US states through physically and chemically mediated atmospheric pathways. Using observations and causal-inference methods grounded in atmospheric dynamics, we show that ASI drives wintertime ozone variability primarily via indirect meteorological mechanisms, including changes in humidity, temperature, and atmospheric circulation along the polar and subtropical jet streams. Inland regions exhibit the strongest sensitivity, while coastal areas are modulated by marine boundary-layer processes. Seasonal contrasts reveal that Arctic-driven dynamics suppress ozone in winter but can enhance accumulation under certain summer conditions. These findings highlight the importance of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in shaping regional air quality and highlight the need to integrate large-scale climate processes into ozone management and climate adaptation strategies.