Stochastic Time to Extinction of an SIQS Epidemic Model with Quiescence

Abstract

Parasite quiescence is the ability for the pathogen to be inactive, with respect to metabolism and infectiousness, for some amount of time and then become active (infectious) again. The population is thus composed of an inactive proportion, and an active part in which evolution and reproduction takes place. In this paper, we investigate the effect of parasite quiescence on the time to extinction of infectious disease epidemics. We build a Susceptible-Infected-Quiescent-Susceptible (SIQS) epidemiological model. Hereby, host individuals infected by a quiescent parasite strain cannot recover, but are not infectious. We particularly focus on stochastic effects. We show that the quiescent state does not affect the reproduction number, but for a wide range of parameters the model behaves as an SIS model at a slower time scale, given by the fraction of time infected individuals are within the I state (and not in the Q state). This finding, proven using a time scale argument and singular perturbation theory for Markov processes, is illustrated and validated by numerical experiments based on the quasi-steady state distribution. We find here that the result even holds without a distinct time scale separation. Our results highlight the influence of quiescence as a bet-hedging strategy against disease stochastic extinction, and are relevant for predicting infectious disease dynamics in small populations.