Fluctuations of blowup time in a simple model of a super-Malthusian catastrophe

Abstract

Motivated by the paradigm of a super-Maltusian population catastrophe, we study a simple stochastic population model which exhibits a finite-time blowup of the population size and is strongly affected by intrinsic noise. We focus on the fluctuations of the blowup time $T$ in the asexual binary reproduction model $2A \to 3A$, where two identical individuals give birth to a third one. We determine exactly the average blowup time as well as the probability distribution $\mathcal{P}(T)$ of the blowup time and its moments. In particular, we show that the long-time tail $\mathcal{P}(T\to \infty)$ is purely exponential. The short-time tail $\mathcal{P}(T\to 0)$ exhibits an essential singularity at $T=0$, and it is dominated by a single (the most likely) population trajectory which we determine analytically.