A Mean-Reverting Model of Exchange Rate Risk Premium Using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Dynamics

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and proposes a structural explanation based on a mean-reverting risk premium. We define a realized premium as the deviation between observed exchange rate returns and the interest rate differential, and demonstrate its strong mean-reverting behavior across multiple horizons. Motivated by this pattern, we model the risk premium using an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process embedded within a stochastic differential equation for the exchange rate. Our model yields closed-form approximations for future exchange rate distributions, which we evaluate using coverage-based backtesting. Applied to USD/KRW data from 2010 to 2025, the model shows strong predictive performance at both short-term and long-term horizons, while underperforming at intermediate (3-month) horizons and showing conservative behavior in the tails of long-term forecasts. These results suggest that exchange rate deviations from UIP may reflect structured, forecastable dynamics rather than pure noise, and point to future modeling improvements via regime-switching or time-varying volatility.