An evolutionary approach to predict slope displacement of earth embankments under earthquake ground motions

Abstract

Accurate slope stability analysis of earth embankments under ground shaking is of great importance for practical use in earthquake geotechnics. This study aims to predict soil slope displacements of earth embankments subjected to earthquake loading using evolutionary algorithms. Comprehensive real case histories of slope displacement of earth embankments under past earthquakes in different areas of the world were gathered and analyzed. A robust model was then developed to predict earthquake induced soil slope displacements using gene expression programming (GEP). Characteristics of earthquake ground motion including earthquake magnitude, earthquake predominant period, maximum earthquake acceleration and also geotechnical specifications of earth embankment including yield acceleration and fundamental period of earth embankment were taken as most influential factors on the slope displacements of earth embankments under earthquakes. Subsequently, performance of developed GEP-based predictive model was assessed using a sensitivity analysis under various effective factors. Finally, the accuracy of the predictive model was evaluated through comparison with the available relationships for estimation of seismic soil slope displacements. The results clearly indicate favorable accuracy of developed GEP-based model to predict slope displacements of earth embankments subjected to earthquake ground motions.