Physical Climate Risk in Asset Management

Abstract

Climate-related phenomena are increasingly affecting regions worldwide, manifesting as floods, water scarcity, and heat waves, significantly impairing companies' assets and productivity. It is essential for asset managers to quantify the exposure of their portfolios to such risk. To this aim, we develop a framework based on the Vasicek model for credit risk that introduces downward jumps due to climate phenomena in a company asset's dynamics. These negative shocks are designed to mirror the negative effect of extreme climate events. The model calibration relies on companies' asset intensity and geographical exposure. We apply the new multivariate firm value model with jumps to assess the impact of climate-related extreme events on expected and unexpected portfolio losses. Our findings indicate that expected losses increase over time, with pronounced differences in exposure observed across sectoral indices. From an environmental policy perspective, these results suggest the need for additional capital buffers to offset losses arising from physical climate risks, particularly in sectors with high asset intensity.