The Niche Connectivity Paradox: Multichrome Contagions Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy more effectively than Monochromacy

Abstract

The rise of vaccine hesitancy has caused a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles and pertussis, alongside widespread skepticism and refusals of COVID-19 vaccinations. While categorizing individuals as either supportive of or opposed to vaccines provides a convenient dichotomy of vaccine attitudes, vaccine hesitancy is far more complex and dynamic. It involves wavering individuals whose attitudes fluctuate -- those who may exhibit pro-vaccine attitudes at one time and anti-vaccine attitudes at another. Here, we identify and analyze multichrome contagions as potential targets for intervention by leveraging a dataset of known pro-vax and anti-vax Twitter users ($n =135$ million) and a large COVID-19 Twitter dataset ($n = 3.5$ billion; including close analysis of $1,563,472$ unique individuals). We reconstruct an evolving multiplex sentiment landscape using top co-spreading issues, characterizing them as monochrome and multichrome contagions, based on their conceptual overlap with vaccination. We demonstrate switchers as deliberative: they are more moderate, engage with a wider range of topics, and occupy more central positions in their networks. Further examination of their information consumption shows that their discourse often engages with progressive issues such as climate change, which can serve as avenues for multichrome contagion interventions to promote pro-vaccine attitudes. Using data-driven intervention simulations, we demonstrate a paradox of niche connectivity, where multichrome contagions with fragmented, non-overlapping communities generate the highest levels of diffusion for pro-vaccine attitudes. Our work offers insights into harnessing synergistic hitchhiking effect of multichrome contagions to drive desired attitude and behavior changes in network-based interventions, particularly for overcoming vaccine hesitancy.