Export proceeds repatriation policies: A shield against exchange rate volatility in emerging markets?

Abstract

We examine the impact of mandatory export proceeds repatriation on exchange rate stability in three emerging markets, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Turkey, using the Generalized Synthetic Control framework. By modeling exchange rate stochastic volatility as our outcome of interest and controlling for interest rate differentials, exchange rate regime shifts, and inflation rate gaps, we address both unobserved time-varying confounders and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our estimates reveal no statistically significant impact of repatriation mandates on exchange-rate volatility across the three countries. We also find that we cannot reject the possibility of a non-zero impact. These results remain robust to an extensive range of sensitivity analyses, including alternative covariate specifications and placebo tests, thereby confirming their reliability.