The First Compute Arms Race: the Early History of Numerical Weather Prediction

Abstract

This paper traces the global race to apply early electronic computers to numerical weather prediction in the decades following World War Two. A brief overview of the early history of numerical weather prediction in the United States, United Kingdom, Sweden, Canada, and Japan is provided. Three critical factors that shaped the development of a national numerical weather prediction are identified: compute capabilities, institution building and state capacity, and talent. Several generalizable lessons are identified with a lens towards modern-day development of national strategies to leverage AI to accelerate scientific competitiveness.