Physics-Informed Regression Modelling for Vertical Facade Surface Temperature: A Tropical Case Study on Solar-reflective Material

Abstract

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose a critical challenge in densely populated cities and tropical climates where large amounts of energy are used to meet the cooling demand. To address this, Building and Construction Authority (BCA) of Singapore provides incentives for passive cooling such as using of solar-reflective material in its Green Mark guidelines. Thus, understanding about its real-world effectiveness in tropical urban environments is required. This study evaluated the effectiveness of solar-reflective cool paint using a hybrid modelling framework combining a transient physical model and data driven model through field measurements. Several machine learning algorithms were compared including multiple-linear regression (MLR), random forest regressor (RF), AdaBoost regressor (AB), extreme gradient boosting regressor (XGB), and TabPFN regressor (TPR). The results indicated that the transient physical model overestimated facade temperatures in the lower temperature ranges. The physics-informed MLR achieved best performance with improved accuracy for pre-cool paint (R2=0.96, RMSE=0.83C) and post-cool paint (R2=0.95, RMSE=0.65C) scenarios, reducing RMSE by 26% and 44%, respectively. The hybrid model also effectively predicted hourly heat fluxes revealing substantial reductions in surface temperature and heat storage with increasing albedo. The maximum net heat flux q_net was reduced by about 30-65 W/m2 in the post-cool paint stage (albedo = 0.73) compared to the pre-cool paint stage (albedo = 0.31). As albedo increases from 0.1 to 0.9, the sensitivity analysis predicts that the maximum daytime surface temperature will decrease by about 11C and the peak heat release of the net heat flux will decrease significantly from about 161 W/m2 to 27 W/m2.