Comparative Model Fidelity Evaluation to Support Design Decisions for Complex, Novel Systems of Systems

Abstract

Systems design processes are increasingly reliant on simulation models to inform design decisions. A pervasive issue within the systems engineering community is trusting in the models used to make decisions about complex systems. This work presents a method of evaluating the trustworthiness of a model to provide utility to a designer making a decision within a design process. Trusting the results of a model is especially important in design processes where the system is complex, novel, or displays emergent phenomena. Additionally, systems that are in the pre-prototype stages of development often do not have sources of ground truth for validating the models. Developing methods of model validation and trust that do not require real-world data is a key challenge facing systems engineers. Model fidelity in this work refers to the adherence of a model to real-world physics and is closely tied to model trust and model validity. Trust and validity directly support a designer's ability to make decisions using physics-based models. The physics that are captured in a model and the complexity of the mathematical representation of the physics contribute to a model's fidelity, and this work leverages the included physical phenomena to develop a means of selecting the most appropriate for a given design decision.