Role of non-extensivity $q$-parameter in tectonic seismic forecasting

Abstract

By writing total Tsallis entropy as a function of non-extensivity q-parameter withing the fragment-asperity model for earthquakes, a critical range of values is identified: 1.4 <q< 1.8. It comes directly from constructing the non-extensive entropy with the assumption that the energy of stress-bearing interactions, which the probability distribution depends on, is proportional to the surface of contact. Such interval of q-values corresponds to the strong variation of entropy and contains the most of reported results for this parameter determined for main-shocks around the world in recent decades, indicating the role of q as a seismic risk factor. Although this knowledge is clearly not enough to elaborate a procedure to predict the occurrence of intense and devastating tectonic earthquakes, it may serve as a relevant element of consideration.