A Review and Classification of Model Uncertainty

Abstract

Model uncertainty is a crucial issue in statistics, econometrics and machine learning, yet its definition remains ambiguous and is subject to various interpretations in the literature. So far, there has not been a universally accepted definition of model uncertainty. We review different understandings of model uncertainty and categorize them into three distinct types: uncertainty about the true model, model selection uncertainty, and model selection instability. We further offer interpretations and examples for a better illustration of these definitions. We also discuss the potential consequences of neglecting model uncertainty in the process of conducting statistical inference, and provide effective solutions to these problems. Our aim is to help researchers better understand the concept of model uncertainty and obtain valid statistical inference results on the premise of its existence.