Counterfactual Probabilistic Diffusion with Expert Models

Abstract

Predicting counterfactual distributions in complex dynamical systems is essential for scientific modeling and decision-making in domains such as public health and medicine. However, existing methods often rely on point estimates or purely data-driven models, which tend to falter under data scarcity. We propose a time series diffusion-based framework that incorporates guidance from imperfect expert models by extracting high-level signals to serve as structured priors for generative modeling. Our method, ODE-Diff, bridges mechanistic and data-driven approaches, enabling more reliable and interpretable causal inference. We evaluate ODE-Diff across semi-synthetic COVID-19 simulations, synthetic pharmacological dynamics, and real-world case studies, demonstrating that it consistently outperforms strong baselines in both point prediction and distributional accuracy.