Hydrocarbon Hazes on Temperate sub-Neptune K2-18b supported by data from the James Webb Space Telescope

Abstract

K2-18b, a sub-Neptune orbiting in the habitable zone of an M dwarf, has attracted significant interest following observations with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and, more recently, with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), which reveal detectable atmospheric features across the near- and mid-infrared. Using free-chemistry Bayesian retrievals, we investigate whether hydrocarbon hazes can explain the apparent mismatch of spectral feature amplitudes between the JWST NIRISS/NIRSpec and MIRI LRS datasets. We additionally assess the impact of stellar parameter uncertainties on the derived bulk properties of the planet and explore how planetary mass uncertainties affect atmospheric retrievals. We find that hazy scenarios can reproduce the combined JWST spectrum and provide a consistent explanation for the reduced NIRISS/NIRSpec feature amplitudes relative to the stronger MIRI features. Across all retrievals, the atmosphere remains consistent with an H$_2$-dominated sub-Neptune, with CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ as the dominant absorbers. Our hazy models retrieve systematically lower molecular abundances compared to haze-free models, reflecting the degeneracy between haze opacity and mean molecular weight. In addition, we identify strong degeneracies between planetary mass, temperature, and mean molecular weight. The retrieved planetary mass is particularly poorly constrained, with $2σ$ uncertainties reaching up to $\sim71\%$. We demonstrate that different mass assumptions can significantly bias the inferred atmospheric properties, with higher masses favouring warmer and lower mean molecular weight atmospheres. Breaking these degeneracies will require improved stellar characterisation to obtain more precise mass measurements. More laboratory-focused studies and future JWST observations are essential for interpreting these temperate sub-Neptune atmospheres.