Bayesian Framework for the E1 and E2 Astrophysical Factors at 300 keV from Subthreshold and Ground-State Asymptotic Normalization Coefficients

Abstract

The $^{12}\mathrm{C}(\alpha,\gamma)^{16}\mathrm{O}$ reaction governs the carbon-to-oxygen ratio set during helium burning, shaping white-dwarf structure and Type~Ia supernova yields. At the astrophysical energy $E \approx 300~\mathrm{keV}$, the cross section is controlled by the subthreshold $1^{-}$ (7.12~MeV) and $2^{+}$ (6.92~MeV) states, whose contributions depend on their asymptotic normalization coefficients (ANCs) $C_{1}$ and $C_{2}$, respectively. We perform a Bayesian analysis of the $S_{E1}(300~\mathrm{keV})$ and $S_{E2}(300~\mathrm{keV})$ factors using calibrated $R$-matrix mappings and experimental ANC constraints for the $1^{-}$, $2^{+}$, and $0^{+}$ ground state. For $S_{E1}(300~\mathrm{keV})$, flat prior on the $1^{-}$ ANC lead to broad posterior with $68\%$ credible interval spanning $ [71.4,\,93.4]$~keV\,b, while Gaussian priors concentrate weight near the reported ANC values and yield narrower posteriors. For $S_{E2}(300~\mathrm{keV})$, the analysis includes the interference of the radiative transition through the subthreshold resonance with the direct capture to the ground-state, which depends on the ground-state ANC $C_{0}$, giving broad posterior with $68\%$ credible interval spanning $[30.7,\,50.5]$~keV\,b. The Gaussian priors centered near anchor values. The resulting posteriors quantify both correlations and uncertainties: despite incorporating the published ANC constraints, the $68\%$ intervals remain broad, showing that present ANC determinations do not yet reduce the astrophysical uncertainty. Overall, the Bayesian framework provides statistically robust posteriors for $S_{E1}(300~\mathrm{keV})$ and $S_{E2}(300~\mathrm{keV})$, improving the reliability of extrapolations for stellar modeling and nucleosynthesis.