Strategic Play and Home Advantage: Coaches' Tactical Impact in Serie A

Abstract

We analyze how coaching strategies affect goal difference and home win probabilities using hand-coded Serie A match commentary (2011/12--2013/14). Our dataset captures in-game dynamics, referee actions, and team behavior. Applying generalized linear, logit, and proportional-odds models with robust and bootstrap standard errors, we uncover stable effects across model averaging. Aggressive opening tactics consistently boost performance, while technical actions like crosses and goal-kicks show distinct patterns. Home advantage remains significant after full control. Our approach reveals the economic logic of real-time coaching, offering a novel, data-driven method to study decision-making under uncertainty in competitive environments.