DAMA/LIBRA and dark matter: decisive tension or contrived cancellation

Abstract

The ANAIS-112 and COSINE-100 experiments were constructed to test the long-observed dark matter-like annual modulation signal reported by DAMA. While they have reported null results in their annual modulation search, it remains possible that the combined effects of quenching, efficiency, resolution and binning could transform a common nuclear recoil rate into a signal that is visible in some detectors but not others. We assess the tension between DAMA/LIBRA and these latest experiments, under a range of hypotheses ranging from physical to general parameterisations of a common nuclear recoil input. We find that, in the most physically-motivated cases, the tension between DAMA and these other NaI experiments exceeds 5$σ$. Lowering the tension to reasonable values requires significant tuning, such as overfitting with large numbers of free parameters, and opposite-sign modulation between recoil signals on sodium versus iodine.