Diagnosing the Properties and Evolutionary Fates of Black Hole and Wolf-Rayet X-ray Binaries as Potential Gravitational Wave Sources for the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Network

Abstract

IC 10 X-1, NGC 300 X-1, and Cyg X-3 constitute a unique class of X-ray binaries in which a stellar-mass black hole (BH) accretes material from a Wolf-Rayet (WR). These systems are particularly intriguing because of their short orbital periods, which make them promising progenitors of gravitational-wave (GW) sources detectable by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) network. Adopting a revised accretion efficiency within the standard Bondi-Hoyle-Lyttleton framework, we perform detailed binary evolution calculations using \texttt{MESA} to characterize their properties at different evolutionary stages and to assess their ultimate fates as potential LVK-detectable GW sources. By applying additional constraints from the observed properties of IC 10 X-1 and NGC 300 X-1, we find that the upper limits on the BH masses in these systems ($M_{\rm BH} \lesssim 25\, M_\odot$ for IC 10 X-1 and $M_{\rm BH} \lesssim 15\, M_\odot$ for NGC 300 X-1) are significantly lower than previous estimates. Both systems are expected to form binary black holes (BBHs) that will merge within a Hubble time, except in the case where the BH in NGC 300 X-1 has a mass of $9\,M_\odot$, corresponding to the lower limit inferred in a previous study using the continuum-fitting method with a relativistic slim-disc model. For Cyg X-3, we find that the BH spin magnitude is constrained to be $\lesssim$ 0.6. Moreover, the WR star in Cyg X-3 is likely to form a lower-mass-gap BH, and the resulting BBH system is also expected to merge within a Hubble time.