Incremental Hybrid Ensemble with Graph Attention and Frequency-Domain Features for Stable Long-Term Credit Risk Modeling

Abstract

Predicting long-term loan defaults is hard because borrower behavior often changes and data distributions shift over time. This paper presents HYDRA-EI, a hybrid ensemble incremental learning framework. It uses several stages of feature processing and combines multiple models. The framework builds relational, cross, and frequency-based features. It uses graph attention, automatic cross-feature creation, and transformations from the frequency domain. HYDRA-EI updates weekly using new data and adjusts the model weights with a simple performance-based method. It works without frequent manual changes or fixed retraining. HYDRA-EI improves model stability and generalization, which makes it useful for long-term credit risk tasks.