Trends and Performance Visualization of Clutch Time in Japan's Professional B.League

Abstract

Reflecting the recent rise in Japanese basketball's competitiveness and pivotal outcomes in international tournaments, clutch-time performance has become increasingly critical. We examine clutch-time performance in Japan's B.League using play-by-play and box-score data from the 2023-24 season. Defining clutch time as the final five minutes with a score margin within five points, we compare efficiency and shot selection between clutch and non-clutch windows. We focus on effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) by spatial category, including In the Paint, Mid-Range, and 3-Point, and investigate league-wide and team-level trends. We further profile player archetypes in clutch minutes via K-means clustering on filtered box-score features. Results show that paint touches and clean three-point looks remain comparatively efficient under pressure, whereas mid-range outcomes are more context-dependent. Championship games exhibit tighter defense and scouting, moderating three-point accuracy for many teams. Our findings highlight the need for tactical flexibility, balancing efficient shot selection with adaptive counters to defensive pressure. We discuss strategic implications for late-game play-calling, spacing, and lineup choices, and outline limitations and future directions.