Multipolar dynamics of social segregation: Data validation on Swedish vaccination statistics

Abstract

We perform a validation analysis on the multipolar model of opinion dynamics. A general methodology for using the model on datasets of two correlated variables is proposed and tested using data on the relationship between COVID-19 vaccination rates and political participation in Sweden. The model is shown to successfully capture the opinion segregation demonstrated by the data and spatial correlation of biases is demonstrated as necessary for the result. A mixing of the biases on the other hand leads to a more homogeneous opinion distribution, and greater penetration of the majority opinion, which here corresponds to a decision to vote or vaccinate.