The multimessenger view of Pulsar Timing Array black holes with the Horizon-AGN simulation

Abstract

We use the Horizon-AGN cosmological simulation to study the properties of supermassive black hole binaries (MBHBs) contributing most to the gravitational wave background (GWB) signal expected in the pulsar timing array (PTA) band. We develop a pipeline to generate realistic populations of MBHBs, allowing us to estimate both the characteristic strain and GWB time series observable by PTA experiments. We identify potential continuous wave (CW) candidates standing above the background noise, using toy PTA sensitivities representing the current EPTA and future SKA. We estimate the probability of detecting at least one CW with signal-to-noise ratio $>3$ to be $4\%$ ($20\%$) for EPTA (SKA)-like sensitivities, assuming a 10-year baseline. We find the GWB to be dominated by hundreds to thousands of binaries at redshifts in the range $0.05-1$, with chirp masses of $10^{8.5}-10^{9.5}\, M_\odot$, hosted mainly in quiescent massive galaxies residing in halos of mass $\sim 10^{13}\, M_\odot$. CW candidates have larger masses, lower redshifts and are found in even more massive halos, typical of galaxy groups and clusters. The majority of these systems would appear as AGN rather than quasars, because of their low Eddington ratios. Nevertheless, CW candidates with $f_{\rm Edd}>10^{-3}$ can still outshine their hosts, particularly in radio and X-ray bands, suggesting them as the most promising route for identification. Our findings imply that optical and near-infrared searches based on light curve variability are challenging and biased toward more luminous systems. Finally, we highlight important caveats in the common method used to compare PTA observations with theoretical models. We find that GWB spectral inferences used by PTAs could be biased toward shallower slopes and higher amplitudes at $f=1/\rm yr$, thereby reducing the apparent tension between astrophysical expectations and PTA observations.