Impacts of Climate Change on Photovoltaic Potential in Africa

Abstract

Africa holds the world's highest solar irradiance yet has <2% of global photovoltaic (PV) capacity, leaving 600 million people without electricity access. However, climate change impacts on its 10 TW potential remain understudied. Using four decades of ERA5 reanalysis data (1980-2020) at 0.25 degree resolution, we quantify the contributions of key climate factors to historical changes in African PV potential through multivariate decomposition. Continental PV potential increased by 3.2%, driven primarily by enhanced solar radiation (+1.2 degree Celsius, contributing -23%). East Africa gained >6% from radiation enhancement, while North Africa declined by 0.5% as extreme heat (+2 degree Celsius) overwhelmed radiation benefits. Critically, stability analysis using the coefficient of variation (CV) reveals that high-irradiance subtropical zones are highly variable (CV=0.4), in contrast to stable equatorial regions (CV=0.1), challenging the assumption that resource abundance ensures reliability. These findings reframe Africa's solar strategy: North Africa requires prioritizing heat-resilient technology over capacity maximization; subtropical zones demand grid-storage co-investment; and East Africa presents globally competitive opportunities for rapid, stable deployment. By resolving spatiotemporal heterogeneities and quantifying climate-driver contributions, our analysis provides an actionable framework for climate-resilient solar deployment, critical for Africa's energy transition and climate mitigation.