Score-Based Quickest Change Detection and Fault Identification for Multi-Stream Signals

Abstract

This paper introduces an approach to multi-stream quickest change detection and fault isolation for unnormalized and score-based statistical models. Traditional optimal algorithms in the quickest change detection literature require explicit pre-change and post-change distributions to calculate the likelihood ratio of the observations, which can be computationally expensive for higher-dimensional data and sometimes even infeasible for complex machine learning models. To address these challenges, we propose the min-SCUSUM method, a Hyvarinen score-based algorithm that computes the difference of score functions in place of log-likelihood ratios. We provide a delay and false alarm analysis of the proposed algorithm, showing that its asymptotic performance depends on the Fisher divergence between the pre- and post-change distributions. Furthermore, we establish an upper bound on the probability of fault misidentification in distinguishing the affected stream from the unaffected ones.