Arriving Young, Leaving Old(er): Age-Structured International Migration on Subnational Scale in Austria

Abstract

Modelling migration is complicated, as people move for many reasons. Some leave their country for the first time, others return to places they once called home, or move on to new destinations. However, most models focus only on who arrives, missing the full picture of how migrant populations evolve. We introduce a model for diaspora flows that estimates both arrivals and exits using daily migration flow rates, disaggregated by age and nationality. Drawing on high-resolution administrative data from Austria covering over 1.8 million foreign nationals, the model allocates these movements across more than 2,000 municipalities based on the size of local diaspora communities. We find that exits are not exceptions but a consistent and predictable feature across all groups. Migration rejuvenates Austria's population, as both arriving and departing migrants are younger than the average resident. This effect has distinct age-geography patterns: younger migrants are drawn to cities, while older migrants are more evenly distributed in the country. By capturing both arrivals and exits simultaneously, our approach provides a more comprehensive and interpretable picture of migration dynamics, how populations change over time, and how they are influenced by space, age, and national origins.