Fine-tuning an ECG Foundation Model to Predict Coronary CT Angiography Outcomes

Abstract

CAD remains a major global public health burden, yet scalable screening tools are limited. Although CCTA is a first-line non-invasive diagnostic modality, its use is constrained by resource requirements and radiation exposure. AI-ECG may offer a complementary approach for CAD risk stratification. In this multicenter study, we developed and validated an AI-ECG model using CCTA as the anatomical reference standard to predict vessel-specific coronary stenosis. In internal validation, the model achieved AUC values of 0.683-0.744 across vessels and showed consistent external performance. Discrimination was maintained in clinically normal ECGs and remained broadly stable across subgroups. Model-predicted probabilities increased monotonically with CCTA-defined stenosis severity. Model probabilities were converted into vessel-specific low-, intermediate-, and high-risk strata using predefined sensitivity- and specificity-based thresholds. Calibration analysis showed agreement between predicted and observed risk, while DCA indicated net clinical benefit over treat-all and treat-none strategies. Integrating AI-derived risk strata with guideline-based PTP categories improved rule-out performance, reduced the gray-zone proportion, and achieved positive NRI compared with PTP alone. In a longitudinal follow-up cohort, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed clear separation of major adverse cardiovascular event risk across model-defined risk groups. Waveform- and attribution-based analyses further identified structured ECG morphology differences and physiologically meaningful signal regions associated with high-risk predictions. These findings support AI-ECG as a feasible tool for complementary CAD screening, anatomical risk estimation, and clinical triage, while prospective studies are needed to confirm its clinical impact.