Evidence for evolving Dark Energy from a new cosmic probe

Abstract

The $\Lambda$CDM concordance cosmological model provides a remarkably successful description of the formation and evolution of structure in the Universe. However, a growing discrepancy between measurements of the expansion rate $H_0$ from the near and distant Universe now appears to be significant at the ~4-7 $\sigma$ level. This inconsistency, known as the ``Hubble tension'', has arisen either due to unrecognized systematics in these measurements or new physics beyond the standard model, such as an evolving dark energy equation of state. Modeling ~20-year, multi-band optical light curves for 6992 active galactic nuclei (AGN), we find a tight relation linking the variability amplitude and characteristic timescale to their intrinsic luminosity. This empirical law enables us to construct an AGN-based Hubble diagram to z ~3.5. Joint inference with supernova distances reveals evidence for an evolving dark energy equation of state at the 3.8-3.9 $\sigma$ level over constant w models and 4.4-4.8 $\sigma$ over $\Lambda$CDM. Our results establish AGN light curves as a powerful tool for cosmography that could offer a novel pathway to test deviations from the standard $\Lambda$CDM expansion history.