The Two-Infall Model Revisited: Constraints on Milky Way Bulge Assembly from >30,000 Galactic Chemical Evolution Models and Machine Learning

Abstract

We constrain the formation history of the Milky Way bulge using a two-infall Galactic Chemical Evolution (GCE) framework implemented in the OMEGA++ code. We recover a best-fit scenario in which the bulge forms through an early, rapid starburst (t1 ~ 0.1Gyr, tau1 ~ 0.09Gyr, star-formation efficiency (SFE) ~ 3Gyr^-1 followed by a delayed, lower mass second infall (t2 ~ 5.1Gyr, tau2 ~ 1.7Gyr, sigma2 ~ 0.69). Our model adopts mass- and metallicity-dependent nucleosynthetic yields from modern stellar grids and explores a wide GCE parameter space in infall timing, star formation efficiency, mass partitioning, IMF upper mass, and SN Ia normalization, optimized via a hybrid genetic algorithm with MCMC refinement. The later infall features a reduced star formation efficiency (Delta SFE ~ 0.72), reproducing the metal-rich peak of the bulge metallicity distribution function (MDF) and the decline in [alpha/Fe] at high [Fe/H]. Our model naturally favors the Joyce et al. (2023) age -- metallicity relation over the ages in Bensby et al. (2017). Degeneracy and principal component analysis show that the infall history, SFE, and mass partitioning are strongly covariant -- the bulge's observed MDF, abundance trends, and age distribution constrain only their combinations, not each parameter independently. The results support a composite bulge origin -- a classical collapse builds the majority of the mass, while a younger component is required to match the late stage enrichment.